BP is anticipating a fall in earnings for the third quarter after citing weak margins at refineries and lower sales on both petrol and other oil products.

The oil giant said that upstream production in Q3 is now expected to be “broadly flat compared to the prior quarter”, with production also broadly flat in the group’s oil production business and its operations and in gas and low carbon energy.

In a statement to the London Stock Exchange, BP suggested its net debt would be higher than expected in the three months to the end of September, in part due to some proceeds from divestments falling into the Q4 figures.

BP also warned it would be announcing an “unfavourable impact” in the range of $200m to $300m, compared to Q2, because of higher exploration write-offs.

“This statement covers a period when oil prices fell, although the recent turmoil in the Middle East has seen crude recover and, assuming this holds, that may be reflected in BP’s performance for the final three months of the year,” commented investment analyst at AJ Bell, Dan Coatsworth.

“BP’s borrowing pile is expected to be higher, partly thanks to the weak performance from its refining arm, but also due to the timing of divestments being pushed into the fourth quarter. However, the increase in debt levels is unlikely to provoke anything other than modest disquiet.”

BP said it would publish its Q3 numbers on 29 October.

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